Full view integrated technical analysis: a systematic approach to active stock market investing

Has the bear market ended? Is the rebound lasting? Everybody wants an answer but nobody can provide one with a good degree of confidence. While fundamentalanalysis is notoriously weak when it comes to market timing decisions and price target forecasts, technical analysis is equally timid in providing any concrete answers to the above fundamentally important questions for market participants. No existing system has produced a firm answer with a respectable degreeof conviction. This book will present a system to answer those questions witha high degree of confidence. If someone says 200 day moving average can be used to answer the above questions, what is the reason for not using 150 day moving average? Should the same 200 day moving average be used to judge whether the market has bottomed out after a 70 day decline as well as after a 400 day decline? The answer is obviously no. While there could be other candidates, thelogic remains the same, that the parameters of the analyses must be adjusted,one way or the other, to reflect the specific situation of each market decline. For this reason, analyses based on a single time frame with fixed indicatorparameters cannot be expected to deliver reliable diagnoses. Attempts have been made to adapt the parameter values of indicators while fixing the time frame. Unfortunately, this will not fully resolve the issue. The margins of error are often too large for the approach to offer a potential solution. Instead, the time frame used in the analysis must be adapted to the size of the running trend. While the existing multi-screen approach is explicitly built on the understanding that the market has multiple trends, it comes short on resolving the problems associated with single time frame analysis, by failing to distinguish the dominant market trend. In this book, we develop objective and robust criteria to identify the dominant trend and the associated situation-specific time interval. Furthermore, our system employs a set of complementary indicatorsin an integrated and interrelated way across different timeframes. This integrated approach, combined with adaptive selection of the central time frame of analysis from a full range, well designed system of time frames, will allow usa broad understanding of the market structure and market dynamics. In particular, it will produce the following results: 1. It will provide the most robustsignal for confirming the reversal of a trend. 2. It will produce highly robust signals to detect a temporary trend. 3. Once a trend is detected as temporary, it will provide a highly robust forecast of the trend reversal point. 4. It will help to understand where and why the current technical analyses fail. 5. It will provide a consistent and systematic analysis of temporary pauses, with forecasts of both the timing and depth of the pauses. These pauses include some frequent and major pausing points that may not be visible if analyzed by the existing chart patterns or indicators. By identifying these regular pausing points and providing a forecast of the depth of the pauses, it helps market participants to guard against the risk of being surprised by the counter movements, and at the same time, avoid the mistake of treating these pauses as trend reversals. 6. The systematic understanding of the market dynamics makes it possible to fruitfully integrate technical analyses with fundamental analyses.

• ISBN: 978-0-470-82579-2
• Editorial: John Wiley & Sons
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 192
• Fecha Publicación: 20/08/2010
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés