Seasonal climate: forecasting and managing risk

Book derived from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability: its Prediction and Impact on Society, Gallipoli, Italy,23 May - 3 June 2005. Originally formed around a set of lectures presented ata NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as astandard ‘collection of proceedings’. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughlypeer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area. First unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses Embraces prediction of El Niño and management of climate risks Covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern Offers a fascinating insight into links between science and policy/management Written by some of the world’s leading experts INDICE: Part 1. Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context. 1. Introduction. 2.Seasonal Forecasts in Decision Making.- Part 2. The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 3. Overview of Seasonal Forecasting. 4. Ocean-Atmosphere Basis for Seasonal Climate Forecasting. 5. Getting the Coupled Model Ready at the Starting Blocks. 6. Modelling the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Coupled System. 7. Statistical Modelling.- Part 3. Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal ClimateForecasts. 8. >From Dynamical Model Predictions to Seasonal Climate Forecasts. 9. An Introduction to Probability Forecasting. 10. How do we know whether Seasonal Climate Forecasts are any good?- Part 4. Developing Successful Application Strategies. 11. Communicating Seasonal Forecasts. 12. Building National and Specialised Climate Services. 13. Water, Health and Early Warnings.- Part 5.The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting. 14. A Way Forward for Seasonal Climate Services. Acronyms. Glossary of Terms. References. Suggested further Reading.- Index.

• ISBN: 978-1-4020-6990-1
• Editorial: Springer
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 452
• Fecha Publicación: 01/02/2008
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés