The era of uncertainty: global investment strategies for inflation, deflation, and the middle ground

Macroeconomic investment strategies for an era of economic uncertainty With macro forces governing the post-credit crisis world, and most likely to remain dominant for some time to come, the power of the business cycle is once again in the spotlight. In this type of environment, stock picking will have far less impact on portfolio returns than getting the 'big picture' right. And using the last twenty years as a playbook will prove costly to investors. The Era ofUncertainty provides a new way of thinking about investing in a dynamic, macro-driven world. In it, François Trahan discusses the importance of macroeconomic evaluation in an unstable global economy, and goes on to cover three possible future scenarios: severe inflation, severe deflation, or a kind of muddlingthrough. With each scenario he discusses the likely causes and consequences as well as the best strategies for profitable investment. Draws on the experiences of prior credit-driven deleveraging cycles to develop a dynamic framework for investing in an era of economic uncertainty Contains insights on the future of the financial industry Provides fascinating anecdotes from Trahan's time at Bear Stearns prior to its collapse and sale If you intend on succeeding in today's economic environment you can't follow yesterday's investment strategies. The Era of Uncertainty reveals what it will take to make it in such a different market and how you can incorporate new strategies into your everyday investment endeavors. INDICE: Foreword. Preface. Acknowledgments. Part 1: Why Macro Matters. Chapter 1: What is Macro, and Why Should Investors Care? Macro Explains More Than70 Percent of Equity Returns. Macro's Role in Bubble-Mania. Chapter Summary. Chapter 2: The Ever-Changing Macro Landscape. Macro in the Age of Globalization. The Increasing Role of Macro in the Years Ahead. Learning from Macro-DrivenMarkets of the Past. Chapter Summary. Chapter 3: Harnessing the Power of the Business Cycle in Investing. Macro is the Bedrock of Successful Investing. Chapter Summary. Chapter 4: The Pitfalls of Ignoring Macro Influences Accidental Success. Macro Lessons are Learned through Experience. Chapter Summary. Part 2: The Roots of the New Era of Uncertainty: The Credit Crisis. Chapter 5: A View from the Front Lines. The Bubble Intensifies. Slaying of the Bear. Chapter Summary. Chapter 6: In the Weeds. The Fog of War. The Bubble was Predictable! And the End Was ForeseeableMacro Could Have Helped. Chapter Summary. Part 3: Current Policies Are Leading Us Down an Unsustainable Path. Chapter 7: No More Tools in the Toolbox. A Breakdown in the Traditional Economic Model of the United States. It's all About the Consumer! Exports Are Not Enough. Chapter Summary. Chapter 8: The Government's Un-Safety Net. Inflation Enters the Picture. Spinning Our Wheels. Nowhere Fast. Chapter Summary. Chapter 9: Kicking the Can down the Road. QE Was an Experiment. We're All Keynesians NowUnfortunately? Uncertainty Kills Growth. The State and Local Time Bomb. The Privatization Option. No Short-Term Fixes. Chapter Summary. Chapter 10: Threats to Righting the Path of Policy. Mobility Threatens Austerity. Inequality and Protectionism. Business Cycle Trends Could Exacerbate the Policy Conundrum. Chapter Summary. Part4: Investing for an Uncertain Future. Chapter 11: A Closer Look at Inflation.Anatomy of Inflation in the United States. The Consumer IS Exposed to Food and Energy. Policies to Avoid Deflation Often Lead to Inflation. Pushing on a String. Inflation has Social and Political Consequences. Market Indications of Inflation. Chapter Summary. Chapter 12: Strategies for Investing in Inflationary and Deflationary Environments. Conventional Wisdom - Hedging for Higher Inflation. Making the Turn - Hedging for Slower Growth. Policy Responses Bring About Extremes. Disinflation versus Deflation. Mild Deflation versus DeflationarySpiral. Fixed Income is a Deflationary Safe Haven. The Middle Ground. Goldilocks in the Emerging Markets. Chapter Summary. Part 5: Unintended Consequences and Creative Solutions. Chapter 13: Unintended Consequences. QE = WMD? ChapterSummary. Chapter 14: Creative Alternatives for the Future. The War on the Deficit. Chapter Summary. Epilogue: The Financial Services Industry in the Era ofUncertainty. Notes. About the Authors. About the Digital Companion. Index.

• ISBN: 978-1-1180-2773-8
• Editorial: John Wiley & Sons
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 256
• Fecha Publicación: 20/07/2011
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés