Accidents are generally regarded as unexpected events that do not fall into any regular pattern. Such is not the case. Analysis of the historical records of accident mortality rates in general, and specifically in industry and transport, shows that they diminish with the passage of time in an ordered fashion, although we are not consciously aware of this fact. In his challenging book Fatal Accidents, the author, in order to explain this paradox, proposes a model of human behaviour in which the reduction in fatal accident rates results from a development of skill, such that the population becomes progressively moreadept at avoiding mishaps. Such changes are subconsciously and collectively regulated by the population concerned - for example, by drivers in the case of road transport - and are made possible by advances in science and technology. A similar model is applicable to the reduction of general mortality rates, to economic growth and to population growth. The future cannot be predicted, but at present safety is improving at a satisfactory rate. INDICE: How fatal accidents happen Introduction. International comparisons: natural disasters. International comparisons: road deaths. Changes in the causes of accidental death. The accident mortality rate and national productivity. The exponential trend curve. Male and female accident mortality rates. Fatal accidents in time of war. Fatal accidents on roads in Great Britain. Road casualties, sex and age. Road casualties: the normal case. The effect of the Second World War. The seat belt law in Great Britain. The anatomy of self-improvement in accident mortality. Summary and conclusion. Fatality and loss rates intransport and industry The theory of accidents. Safety criteria. Analysing the historical data. Fatality and loss rates in transport and industry. Comment.Exceptions to the normal pattern. Summary and comment. Scatter in fatality rate data. Mortality from all causes Introduction. The kinship between accident and all-cause mortalities. The general characteristics of all-cause mortality.Initiation of the fall in mortality rates. The germ theory of disease. Infectious disease. Mortality rates in the twentieth century. The influenza epidemicin 1918. The two World Wars. The difference between the sexes. Comment. Economic growth Introduction. Economic growth in Britain: details. Boom and slump. The War period: 1900 to 1950. The 1930s Depression. Price inflation in Britain1900 to 2000. Population trend in Britain 1801 to 2001. Politics and economicgrowth. Regulating human behaviour. Analysing historical data: characteristics and methods Quantitative history. Practical considerations. Quantifying a trend. The exponential case. The hyperbolic case. The sinusoidal trend. Quantifying the spread of data. Frequency distribution. The 2s boundaries. Plotting the distribution function. The neutral condition. Some outstanding questions Introduction. Fatal accidents. Mortality from all causes. Economic growth. Predictions. A negative factor. Final comments. The world turned upside-down. Safetypolicy.
- ISBN: 978-1-84569-530-9
- Editorial: Woodhead
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 144
- Fecha Publicación: 01/06/2009
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Inglés