Predicting the unpredictable: the tumultuous science of earthquake prediction

An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the cataclysmic 2008 Sichuan quake in China that killed tens of thousands or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can't predict when the Big One will hit. "Predicting the Unpredictable" is the first book to explain why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science - and pseudoscience - of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes - a quest fraught with controversies, spectacular failures, and occasional apparent successes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field with the pioneers who have sought to develop reliable methods based on observable phenomena such as small earthquake patterns and electromagnetic signals. Hough describes attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She recounts stories of strange occurrences preceding massive quakes, such as changes in well water levels and mysterious groundfogs. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream, from the enduring belief that animals can sense impending earthquakes to amateur YouTube videos purporting to show earthquake lights prior to large quakes. This book is an entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, one that illuminates the unique challenges of predicting the unpredictable. INDICE: Chapter 1: Ready to Rumble 1 Chapter 2: Ready to Explode 12 Chapter 3: Irregular Clocks 29 Chapter 4: The Hayward Fault 39 Chapter 5: Predictingthe Unpredictable 47 Chapter 6: The Road to Haicheng 58 Chapter 7: Percolation 86 Chapter 8: The Heyday 96 Chapter 9: The Hangover 108 Chapter 10: Highly Charged Debates 125 Chapter 11: Reading the Tea Leaves 141 Chapter 12: Accelerating Moment Release 150 Chapter 13: On the Fringe 158 Chapter 14: Complicity 171 Chapter 15: Measles 191 Chapter 16: We All Have Our Faults 196 Chapter 17: The Bad One 206 Chapter 18: Whither Earthquake Prediction? 222 Acknowledgments231 Notes 233 General Index 255 Index of Earthquakes by Year 261

• ISBN: 978-0-691-13816-9
• Editorial: Princeton University
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 260
• Fecha Publicación: 16/11/2009
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés