INDICE: About the Authors. Preface. Acknowledgements. Definitions of Risk And Risk Management. Introduction: The Art of Prediction and the Creation of Order. Technical Summary. 1. The Universal Learning Curve. 2. The Four Echoes. 3. Predicting Rocket Risks and Refinery Explosions: Near Misses, Shuttles, Safety and Anti-Missile Defense Systems Effectiveness. 4. The Probability of HumanError: Learning in Technological Systems. 5. Estimating Mistakes: The Conceptof Error States. 6. Risk Assessment: Dynamic Events and Financial Risks. 7. Safety and Risk Management Systems: The Fifth Echoes. 8. Risk Perception: Searching for the Truth Among all the Numbers. 9. I Must Be learning Nomenclature. Appendix A. The Human Bathtub: Predicting the Future Risk. Appendix B. The Most Risk, or Maximum Likelihood, for the Outcome (Failure or Error) Rate While Learning. Appendix C. Transcripts of the Four Echoes. Appendix D. The Four Phases: Fuel Leak Leading to Gliding a Jet in to Land without any Engine Power. Appendix E. The Four Phases of a Midair Collision. Appendix F. Risk From the Number of Outcomes We Observe: How Many Are There? Appendix G: Mixing in a Tank: The D.D. Williamson Vessel Explosion. Appendix H. Never Happening Again. Appendix I. A Heuristic Organisational Risk Stability Creation. Appendix J. New Laws of Practice for Learning and Error Correction. Appendix K. Predicting RocketLaunch Reliability Case Study. Illustrations. Index.
- ISBN: 978-0-470-69976-8
- Editorial: John Wiley & Sons
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 568
- Fecha Publicación: 24/10/2008
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Inglés