In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authorityTony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops andillustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to bemodeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can beapplied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers. Written by a leading authority in the field Shows practitioners how Quantitative Risk Analysis can improve risk management decisions and policies Demonstrates applications in complex and uncertain biological, engineering, andsocial systems INDICE: From the contents Preface.- Goals and challenges for quantitative risk assessment.- Introduction to engineering risk analysis.- Introduction to health risk analysis.- Limitations of risk assessment using risk matrices.- Limitations of quantitative risk assessment using aggregate exposure and risk models.- Identifying nonlinear causal relations in large data sets.- Overcoming preconceptions and confirmation biases using data mining.- Estimating the fraction of disease caused by one component of a complex mixture: bounds for lung cancer.- Bounding resistance risks for penicillin.- Confronting uncertain causal mechanisms – portfolios of possibilities.- Determining what can be predicted – identifiability.- Predicting effects of changes: could removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung cancer.
- ISBN: 978-0-387-89013-5
- Editorial: Springer
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 465
- Fecha Publicación: 01/04/2009
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Inglés